Population shifts transform western New York
Urban population declines in western and central New York that were reflected in census data this week elicited resignation in Buffalo, relief in Rochester and a sense of renewal in Syracuse.
Amid those reactions to the 2010 census data, a broader picture began to emerge.
The decades of erosion across the regions have resulted in a subtle shift in the relative size of the cities to each other, particularly the population bases of Rochester and Buffalo.
There also has been a steady shift from the urban centers to outlying areas.
At no time in the last 160 years has the population of Rochester been so high in proportion to that of its neighbor to the west. Even when the two cities were at their zeniths in 1950, there were nearly two Buffalo residents for every one in Rochester.
The census shows, however, that Rochester with its 210,565 residents can today no longer be considered overshadowed by Buffalo and its 261,310 denizens.
A mini Detroit
“The story of Buffalo is the story of one of the nation’s great industrial centers being carved up in a post-industrial age,” said Gerald Gamm, chairman of the political science department at the University of Rochester. “The story of Buffalo is the upstate New York reduced-size version of Detroit.” The last time the two cities were so close in relative population was in 1850, when Rochester boasted 36,000 residents and Buffalo had 42,000. Those figures had ballooned to 332,000 and 580,000, respectively, by 1950.
While both cities have hemorrhaged jobs and residents since then, Buffalo has shed 55 percent of its population, spurred by double-digit percentage drops in four of the last five censuses. By contrast, Rochester has seen its population cut by 37 percent over the same period and Syracuse by about a third.
“Buffalo has had a much more significant decline than Rochester and Syracuse, and I think that reflects the types of industries in Rochester and Syracuse, particularly health care and education,” said Christine Himes, a demographer and director of the Center for Policy Research at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School for Public Policy.
When the U.S. census released the figures on Thursday, giddiness swept over city halls in Rochester and Syracuse.
Officials in Rochester were bracing for the population to dip below 200,000, and those in Syracuse had anticipated at least a 5 percent decline compared with the 1.5 percent drop realized.
Bottoming-out?
Buffalo officials pointed fingers at Albany, blaming high taxes for driving 11 percent of residents out of the city, and took pains to minimize public perception of the loss and accentuate their city’s place in the state hierarchy.
“All upstate cities have lost population,” Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown told the Buffalo News. “Buffalo is still the second-largest city in New York.”
Some observers suggested that Rochester and particularly Syracuse may be witnessing a bottoming-out of their populations, but that it remains too early to reach that conclusion.
“By definition, that’s what the numbers in some places are showing. The question is why,” said Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University at Albany. “Whatever trend there has been for the past decade won’t necessarily continue in the coming decade, so I’m not sure we know enough to describe a bottoming-out.”
Bart Roberts, a policy analyst with the State University at Buffalo’s Regional Institute, said that regardless of the size of their population losses, the three cities share the same story.
“All of them are losing population, and from my perspective I don’t see that as being a win for Rochester or Syracuse,” Roberts said. “What it really comes to is that all of these places have similar challenges in attracting and retaining people.”
Suburban growth
The other clear indication is that people are moving to the suburbs. “The census numbers tell us that despite the hope of urbanists that people are moving back to the cities in droves, they have to acknowledge that the suburbanization of America isn’t over,” said Kent Gardner, president of the Center for Governmental Research in Rochester.
That’s very clear in some of the Monroe County numbers, Gardner said. The county’s population change essentially was flat — growth was 1 percent — to a total of 744,344 (from 735,343 in 2000).
The number of Rochester residents fell 4.2 percent to 210,565 people. Meanwhile, the population in the suburb of Webster went up 12.4 percent, to 42,641, in the 10-year period between national censuses.
The most western region of New York has experienced a lot of out-migration, although some suburbs have grown dramatically. Eight of the 17 upstate counties that had population losses between 2000 and 2010 are in western New York — Erie, Niagara, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Orleans and Wyoming.
Chemung, Tioga, Schuyler, Otsego and Delaware counties also lost population. Elmira shed 5.6 percent of its population, and Hornell, Steuben County, lost 5.1 percent.
There was growth in some smaller upstate cities, including increases in Corning, Ithaca, Cortland and Kingston. Binghamton’s population was flat.
Downstate suburbs and cities, New York City and the Capital Region are thriving, according to the data. A number of cities in the Hudson Valley grew over the past decade, including Poughkeepsie, White Plains and Beacon.
“It’s been a long-term struggle for western New York to replace all of the significant economic losses it has had,” said Robert Scardamalia, former chief demographer for the state Department of Economic Development, who now runs his own business.
Thousands of jobs in steel and automotive manufacturing have disappeared in western New York over the past several decades, he said.
Some of the western New York suburbs are boosting their populations, though. The population of Victor, Ontario County, increased 43.1 percent to 14,275 people. The town of Canandaigua, also in Ontario, had 31 percent growth.
Wheatfield, near Niagara Falls, was the sixth-fastest growing municipality, boosting its ranks by 28.6 percent.
Lots of aid at stake
New York state’s population grew by 2.1 percent — the national average was 9.7 percent — to 19.4 million people.
The census numbers are important in determining federal aid. About $400 billion in federal money is handed out based on census data, Scardamalia said.
Unshackle Upstate, a coalition of businesses, said the census statistics show that policies in Albany have damaged the upstate economy, making it “a less hospitable place to live, work, raise a family and create jobs.” The group wants a 2 percent property-tax cap passed this year.
“I think that what the census data indicates is that the people left to follow the jobs,” said Brian Sampson, executive director of Unshackle Upstate.
DANDREAT
CLMATTHE
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