NATION-BUILDING IN AFGHANISTAN HAS HAD ONLY LIMITED SUCCESS and is likely not to survive a U.S. withdrawal in 2014. That’s the conclusion of a report to be released today by the Democratic majority staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after a two-year investigation. The Washington Post obtained an advance look at the report, you can read about it here: http://wapo.st/imSRXj

THE REPORT is likely to add to the pressure for an accelerated U.S. withdrawal as the White House considers how many troops will begin to come home next month. It’s not good news for military leaders, who have been pleading for patience amid signs that they’ve found a clear path to success.

NATO TRAINING MISSION COMMANDER LT. GEN. WILLIAM CALDWELL, on a visit to Washington, said Monday it could take until 2017 to complete training of Afghan security forces under current plans, even though the process is ahead of schedule and Afghan forces have been increasingly successful in combating insurgents. One of the biggest challenges he cited was literacy – many of the recruits have little or no education and have to be taught to read even at a basic level.

HIS OPERATIONAL COUNTERPART, ISAF Joint Command head Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez warned last week: “This may take more time than we have.”

ADDING MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE are comments by senior Afghan security adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta in Germany’s Der Spiegel, who says (not surprisingly to MD readers) that the key to stability in Afghanistan is ending Pakistani support for the insurgency: “There are 40,000 madrassas – or religious schools – in Pakistan, and even if only a small fraction of them support the terrorists, the stream of new fighters is almost endless. There will only be peace in this region when this source has been dried up.” http://bit.ly/lgEEFW

HOW TO EXIT AFGHANISTAN, by Henry Kissinger, in today’s Post. The answer: effective negotiations. “Although the predominant role of the United States sometimes obscures it, the outcome in Afghanistan is, in essence, an international political problem.” Read it here: http://wapo.st/kLyuqK

AFGHAN OPS UPDATE – Coalition and Afghan forces were able to thwart another attack Tuesday, thanks to a tip from a local resident, this time in the eastern city of Gardez, ISAF officials tell Morning Defense. Troops stopped a vehicle suspected of carrying an IED and arrested a woman. After questioning, she gave up her son, a known coordinator of insurgent attacks. The two were taken into custody by Afghan police.

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