http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/saving-medicare-from-itself
Medicare’s creators predicted that its cost would grow from $5B in its first year to $12B in 1990. Instead, Medicare cost $110B in 1990 – 9x the estimate. 2000 cost: $219B. 2010 cost: $520B. Projected 2020 cost: $1 trillion per year. “It is worth remembering that ours is the only developed country that makes age-based distinctions in its provision of government health coverage…. The largest driver of Medicare cost inflation is the fact that retirees bear little of the expense for their own care.”
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