WILL THEY STAY OR GO? That’s the question many people are asking about U.S. troops in Iraq after a confusing round of reports over the weekend.

THE WHITE HOUSE MOVED QUICKLY SATURDAY TO KNOCK DOWN an Associated Press report quoting unnamed officials as saying the United States had abandoned efforts to keep a few thousand troops in Iraq past the end of the year, saying talks with Baghdad were ongoing and no decision had been made. http://politi.co/p5j5hG

WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON? The Iraqis have offered to host U.S. troops, but without immunity from local prosecution. That’s a deal-breaker for Washington, which insists any troops who stay behind must have immunity. Meanwhile, the nearly 40,000 U.S. troops in Iraq are under orders to leave in less than three months and are focused on making that happen. It may be too late for any of them to switch course and stay behind, but that doesn’t mean others won’t come back if a deal is reached.

PART OF THE CONFUSION STEMS FROM IRAQI AMBIVALENCE about the idea – an ambivalence which makes it harder to get a deal. There are divisions between different factions in the government, and also between what politicians say in public and what they say in private. http://bit.ly/n1c6fT

BOTTOM LINE – We haven’t heard the last of this issue. Both the United States and Iraq have reasons to want to maintain some kind of U.S. military presence in Iraq. Those reasons will keep driving talks forward for now.

ONE REASON TO KEEP U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ is to keep pressure on Iran. Lawmakers Sunday pushed a harder line against Tehran in the wake of the thwarted assassination plot against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador in Washington revealed last week. “Iran is increasingly hostile,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein told “Fox News Sunday,” suggesting that the Tehran is on “a collision course” with the United States. McCain told CNN meanwhile that “covert activities of some kind should be considered” against Iran.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTS TODAY THAT IRAQ could become a battleground in a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia if things start to heat up. That story is here: http://on.wsj.com/nPA3eZ