By Austin Wright

CHEAT SHEET – The fourth straight day of budget hearings brings at least one blessing: It’s not hard to predict what will be asked.

FIRST – HASC Republicans this morning will push the Army’s top brass to describe the potential effects of sequestration in the starkest of terms. McHugh and Odierno are likely to oblige.
Navy and Marine leaders sure didn’t hold back at yesterday’s hearing. Greenert said the hundreds of billions of dollars in automatic cuts would amount to “devastation” and that the service hasn’t yet started planning for them. But “that time will come, probably in the summer,” the chief of Naval operations said. “We do contingency planning. That’s in our DNA.”
Smith, HASC’s ranking Democrat, tried to offer some reassurance, saying it’s “highly likely” that lawmakers will strike a deal to stave off sequestration come December, after the 2012 elections. Smith even floated an idea for a compromise: Republicans and Democrats could divide the task, with each side separately coming up with $600 billion in deficit-cutting measures, for a total of $1.2 trillion in savings – the amount needed to prevent sequestration.
McKeon was less optimistic. “Our track record isn’t good,” the committee chairman said. “It doesn’t look good that we will fix this.”

SECOND – Army leaders should expect to be asked about clean-energy initiatives. Yesterday, lawmakers repeatedly brought up the issue, with Republicans questioning whether certain projects are worth the cost. Forbes led the charge, berating Navy leaders for prioritizing alternative fuels over shipbuilding and pounding his desk as he asked why they would allow the fleet to shrink as China’s grows. Mabus later shot back, saying “it would be irresponsible if we did not reduce our dependence on foreign oil.” DoD Buzz has a full story. http://bit.ly/wISos9

THIRD – McKeon is likely to prod McHugh and Odierno today to identify specific risks associated with their proposed budgets. The California Republican yesterday tried to goad Amos and Greenert into doing so, but the military officials wouldn’t deviate from their mission. “I think it’s the right strategy for the right time,” Amos said. Greenert chimed in: “This strategy is a good strategy.”

BIG PICTURE – Having military officials on the record saying that Obama’s budget makes us less safe would provide McKeon with ammunition as Republicans gear up for a battle with the president. The committee chairman yesterday previewed the coming showdown in a conversation with Morning Defense: “I haven’t talked to the president,” he said. “All I know is he has said he would fight any effort to fix the sequestration, which I feel is a totally irresponsible position.” Today’s hearing starts at 10 a.m. in Rayburn 2118.

[It should be neither a republican or democrat concern but those who would keep America safe…unless you really bepieve it IS ONLY EPUBLICAN concerned about gutting the military during these unsettled times!]

WORD OF THE DAY – Cliff (noun) 1. a steep rock face 2. what one falls off during sequestration. Used in a sentence: “I want the country to understand where we’re heading – we’re heading right off a cliff.” – McKeon yesterday

ARMY INTELLIGENCE – Two things to note heading into today’s hearing: First, Obama’s budget proposal shifts $3 billion in personnel costs from the base budget to the war budget – a maneuver that’s likely to meet resistance from Republicans, who have accused the White House of using accounting gimmicks to achieve savings. “It’s kind of a loophole,” budget analyst Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said. “If they put that $3 billion in the war budget, then that frees up $3 billion in their base budget that they’re able to spend on other priorities.”
Second, a question that might come up is how the Army plans to reduce its own size. “The military – and the Army in particular – has been doing pretty well in recent years with retention,” Harrison told Morning Defense. “More people want to stay in the service because the job market’s so bad on the outside.” But, he said, “If that continues, and if end strength is supposed to come down more quickly, it is possible that the Army might have to resort to letting people go who don’t want to separate.”

FIRST LOOK – The pro-Israel group JINSA is set to release a report next Tuesday that outlines the case against a shrinking military budget. The main argument: Proposed cuts don’t square with U.S. strategy and increasing global security threats. The president’s budget request includes cuts “that will prevent the most modern of technology to be available to our soldiers and, as a result, would jeopardize our security, demoralize our allies, and embolden our adversaries,” Peter Huessy, a JINSA visiting fellow, says in the report. Morning Defense has an exclusive draft copy http://bit.ly/wmad5R

SPEED READ:
POLITICO, “Hawker Beechcraft plays the outsource card after losing defense contract,” by Charles Hoskinson: “A fierce legal and lobbying campaign pits the contract winner – a partnership including Brazil’s Embraer – against Wichita, Kan.-based Hawker Beechcraft, which sued the U.S. Air Force after its bid was disqualified and launched a lobbying campaign that has convinced some conservatives that the Obama administration is shipping American jobs to South America to appease Brazil’s government and, perhaps, also financier George Soros.” http://politi.co/AiNb9U

Go to POLITICO Morning Defense Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningdefense