Leak: Biden Admin Thinks Ukraine Will Win War Now That Aid Passed

Leaked talking points for Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Ukraine this week anticipate Ukraine will "operate independently following the war"; and warns against using the word "resilient"

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The Biden administration believes that Ukraine will win in its war against Russia, internal talking points for Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the war ravaged country this week say. The document, obtained by a source close to the State Department and revealed here for the first time, lays out the “communications guidance” for Blinken’s trip to Ukraine beginning on Monday and going through Thursday.

The messaging, which says that Secretary Blinken will deliver a speech on how “the United States and Allies will help Ukraine to operate independently following the war,” contradicts public warnings from the administration about Ukraine losing the war — warnings that the administration used to pressure Congress into approving aid.

Screenshot of leaked document
“Ukraine’s survival is in danger,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in March. “So I leave here today fully determined to keep U.S. security assistance and ammunition flowing, and that’s a matter of survival and sovereignty for Ukraine and it’s a matter of honor and security for America.”

CIA Director William Burns has gone even further, saying that the Ukrainians could use the war by the end of the year if aid wasn’t passed.

“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” Burns said in April testimony to Congress “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

Last month, Congress passed a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel. With the funding secured, the administration’s alarmist rhetoric has disappeared, culminating in Secretary Blinken’s speech this week.

The trip objectives are to “reinforce confidence in Ukraine’s ability to prevail” and trumpet the passing of the Ukraine aid supplemental by Congress, the document says. The United States, the document further states, supports a “comprehensive, just, and lasting peace based on full respect for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, with its internationally recognized borders,” which includes both Crimea and the Donbas regions.

Screenshot of leaked document
According to the State Department, the “target audiences” for Blinken’s three-day visit includes Ukrainians in the country and in the diaspora and “international and domestic journalists covering the trip,” but not the American people or Congress, not directly.

Screenshot of leaked document
The document also says that Blinken should “encourage hope without downplaying the hardship Ukrainians face under Russian aggression.”

“Refrain from using the world ‘resilient’ when messaging to Ukrainians,” the talking points caution, “which can be interpreted as ‘Get used to it.’”

Screenshot of leaked document
I’ve included a copy of the document in PDF form below.

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— Edited by William M. Arkin

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